Energy Scenarios – Construction, Assessment, and Impact
Background and Introduction
Energy scenarios play a crucial role in today's policy making, economic decisions and the public debate. At the same time, they turn out to be highly controversial: Scenarios show substantial differences; the assumptions and methods used often remain intransparent; and there are no widely accepted approaches to assess the quality of scenarios. In addition to that, only little is known about the actual impact of energy scenarios on politics, economy and society.
That is why, in the recent years, energy scenarios have come into focus of interdisciplinary research. Due to these efforts, considerable progress has been made in understanding the construction and the impact of energy scenarios as well as in developing methods for their assessment.
The conference Energy Scenarios - Construction, Assessment, and Impact aims at presenting the current state of research on energy scenarios as well as at reflecting fields of promising further research. It therefor brings together junior and senior scientists from different academic disciplines and countries with practitioners in politics, the private sector and other fields dealing with energy scenarios.
Programme and Session Plan
Monday, September 24th
09:00-12:00 Guided tour to KIT Large-Scale Research Sector (optional, separate registration required)
12:30-14:00 Registration and lunchtime snack
14:00-14:15 Introduction (A. Grunwald)
14:15-14:45 Keynote I: "Constructing Energy Scenarios – Lessons Learned and Current Challenges" (V. Krey)
14:45-15:15 Keynote II: "Assessment of Energy Scenarios for Politics" (L. Srivastava)
15:15-15:45 Short poster presentations
16:00-17:00 Coffee break incl. poster session
17:00-18:30 Parallel sessions 1-3 (3 presentations each)
19:00-21:00 Dinner and evening programme
Tuesday, September 25th
09:00-10:30 Parallel sessions 4-6 (3 presentations each)
10:30-11:00 Coffee break incl. snack
11:00-12:00 Parallel sessions 7-9 (2 presentations each)
12:00-13:00 Panel "The Role of Energy Scenarios in Energy Policy" (D. Dehmer, R. Hillerbrand, K. Hufendiek, V. Krey)
13:00-13:30 Best poster award and outlook (A. Grunwald)
Scope of the conference
The conference focuses on the following four issues:
Construction of energy scenarios. Possible questions to be addressed (amongst others): How can we examine big and complex spaces of possibilities? What kind of models do we need: more complex ones, simpler ones, or both? Can the use of simple and complex models be combined in a promising way? How can social and societal aspects better integrated and qualitative storylines be transferred into quantitative scenarios?
Assessment of energy scenarios. Possible questions to be addressed (amongst others): How can the quality of energy scenarios be assessed (consistency, transparency, uncertainty, etc.)? How can we compare scenarios stemming from different models and studies? What does "possible" actually mean in scenarios? In which cases should we focus on possible, on probable or rather on desirable scenarios?
Impact of energy scenarios. Possible questions to be addressed (amongst others): How do energy scenarios influence the actual policy making? What are requirements for practically useful scenario studies? How can we use scenarios to properly justify decisions? What principles for decision-making can we apply in situations of great uncertainty?
Cross-cutting issues. Possible questions to be addressed (amongst others): What are the crucial aspects in reflecting the governance of energy scenarios? How can different spatial scales be integrated? What governance processes are needed in order to integrate multiple scenario studies in national and international policy making? What requirements must scenarios and models fulfil in order to support such an integration? What can we learn from past and ongoing scenario integration and comparison activities, such as the IPCC process?
For conference participation (with or without contribution), please use the form below to register. The registration fee is 50 Euros (reduced rate of 30 Euros for students). It covers the conference fee, catering during the whole conference as well as the evening programme. Deadline for registrations is 15th of August 2018.
After submission of the registration data, you will be sent a confirmation e-mail. Subsequently, an invoice will be sent to your billing address. Your registration is binding as soon as the payment has been received.
By registering you agree that during the conference, photos may be taken and that your name may be announced in the participants list.
Conference participants are invited to attend a guided tour to the Large-Scale Research Sector of KIT. During a round trip on the area, three energy related research facilities will be presented (FR2, TOSKA and bioliq). The excursion is free of charge, a separate registration is required. If you want to attend the excursion, please write an e-mail to the coordinators of the Helmholtz Research School on Energy Scenarios until 15th of August 2018.
As the Large-Scale Research Sector of KIT is located outside of the city, a shuttle bus will bring you there. Departure is at 8:30 at Novotel Karlsruhe City Hotel, Festplatz 2, 76137 Karlsruhe. The guided tour is from 9:00-12:00. Afterwards, the shuttle bus will drive directly to the conference venue; arrival is scheduled for 12:30.
Venue and Accomodation
We have reserved a number of hotel rooms that can be booked by conference participants directly:
Novotel Karlsruhe City Hotel
Festplatz 2, 76137 Karlsruhe, Tel: (+49) 7 21 / 3 52 60
Booking code: "Energy Scenarios" (via e-mail or telephone only!), Rooms reserved until 10th of August 2018
Leonardo Hotel Karlsruhe
Ettlinger Straße 23, 76137 Karlsruhe, Tel: (+ 49) 7 21 / 3 72 70
Booking code: "Abruf ESF 2018", Rooms reserved until 12th of August 2018 (min. 2 nights)
For further information please contact the coordinators of the Helmholtz Research School on Energy Scenarios.